Lesson 14

世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性，如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值。
原因是蝴蝶效应。对于小片的恶劣天气--对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，小 可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪--任何
预测的质量会很快下降。错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的征状，从小尘暴和风暴发展到只有卫星
上可以看到的席卷整个大陆的旋涡。
现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里。即使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠
推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方。假设地球上可以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺，并按
1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每个传感器都极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家
需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分，一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每个点上12：01 时
可能出现的情况。
计算机无法推断出1个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。正午时分，传感器之间的距离会
掩盖计算机无法知道的波动--任何偏离平均值的变化。到12：01时，那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差。
很快这种偏差会增加到10英尺的范围，如此等等，一直到全球的范围。


Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six 
or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can 
mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and 
uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust 
devils and squalls up to continet-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and 
even so, some starting data has to guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see 
everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, 
rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every 
sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any 
other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful 
computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12:01, 
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or 
rain on day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations 
that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12:01, those 
fluctions will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied 
to the ten-food scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.






Lesson 15

有两个因素严重地妨碍工业中科学研究的效率 一是科研工作中普遍存在的保密气氛 二是研究人员缺乏个人自由。
任何一项研究都涉及到保密，那些从事科研的人员自然受到了限制。他们不能和其他国家、其他大学、甚至往往不能
与本公司的其他部门的同行们进行有效的接触。保密程度自然差别很大。有些大公司进行的研究属于一般和基础的研究，
因此不保密对他们才有李。然而，以来这种研究的很多工艺程序是在完全保密的情况下进行的，直到可以取得专利权
的阶段为止。更多的工艺过程根本不会取得专利权，而是作为秘方保存着。在这化学工业方面尤为突出。同物理
和机械工业相比，化学工业中偶然发现的机会要多得多。有时，保密尽然达到了这样的程度，即连研究工作的整个性质
都不准提及。比如，很多公司向图书馆借阅科技书籍时感到困难，因为他们不愿让人家记下它们公司的名字和借阅
的某一本书。他们生怕别的公司的情报人员据此摸到他们可能要从事的某项科研项目。

Two factos weigh heavily against the effectiveness of scientific research in industry. One is the 
general atmosphere of secrecy in which it is carried out, the other the lack of freedom of the 
individual research worker. In so far as any inquiry is a secret one, it naturally limits all those 
engaged in carrying it out from effective contact with their fellow scientists either in other countries 
or in universities, or even, often enough, in other departments of the same firm. The degress of 
secrecy naturally varies considerably. Some of the bigger firms are engaged in researches 
which are of such general and fundamental nature that it is a positive advantage to them not to 
keep them secret. Yet a great many processes depending on such research are sought for with 
complete secrecy until the stage at which patents can be taken out. Even more processes are never 
patented at all but kept as secret processes. This applies particularly to chemical industries, where 
chance discoveries play a much larger part than they do in physical and mechanical industries. 
Sometimes the secrecy goes to such an extent that the whole nature of the research cannot be 
mentioned. Many firms, for instance, have great difficulty in obtaining technical or scientific books
from libraries because they are unwilling to have names entered as having taken out such and 
such a book, for fear the agents of other firms should be able to trace the kind of research they are 
likely to be undertaking.

Lesson 16

在工业生活的组织中，工厂对工人的生理和精神状态的影响完全被忽视了。现代工业的基本概念是：以最低成本获取
最多产品，为的是让某个个人或末一部分人尽可能多地赚钱。现代工业发展起来了，却根本没想到操作机器的人的本质。
工厂把一种人为的生存方式强加给工人，却不顾及这种生存方式给工人及其后代带来的影响。大城市的建设毫不关心
我们。摩天大楼完全是按这样的需求修建的：每平方英尺地皮取得最大收入和向租房人提供使他满意的办公室和
住房。这样就导致了许多摩天大厦拔地而起，大厦内众多的人挤在一起。文明人喜欢这样一种生活方式。在享受自己
住宅的舒适和庸俗的豪华时，却没有意识到被剥夺了生活所必需的东西。大得吓人的高楼和阴暗狭窄的街道组成了今日
现代化的城市。街道上充斥着汽油味和有毒气体，出租汽车、卡车、公共汽车的噪音刺耳难忍，络绎不绝的人群挤来挤去。显然，现代化的城市不是为居民的利益而规划的。

